Innovation , diffusion and cumulative causation : changes in the Spanish growth regime , 1960 - 2001

This article presents a model of macroeconomic growth that combines in a single formalization two complementary views on innovation and economic growth, the technologygap approach and the Kaldorian theory of cumulative causation. The model suggests that what matters for economic growth in the long run is the existence of a good match between the patterns of technological change, income distribution and demand growth. The model is estimated for the Spanish economy during the period 1960-2001, and the econometric results show that important changes have happened in its growth regime over time. Since the 1980s, innovation and diffusion of new technologies provide with a greater stimulus to productivity growth, but the technology push on the supply-side is not sustained by the prevailing patterns of income distribution and demand growth.